FOUR polling companies say Labour is on course to win Central Devon and unseat Tory cabinet minister Mel Stride. 

The latest MRP projections from YouGov, Survation, Ipsos and Savanta all show the Labour Party ahead of the Conservatives in the seat by around three to seven percentage points. 

Pollster More in Common, however, predicts the Tories will only just hang onto the constituency by four per cent of the vote despite big losses. 

Central Devon covers Crediton, North Tawton, Okehampton, much of eastern Dartmoor and Ashburton. 

If Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride were to lose the seat, it would be a clear “Portillo moment” - so called after Tory cabinet minister Michael Portillo lost his seat in Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide. 

Mel Stride, MP for Central Devon
Tory candidate Mel Stride (Official Parliamentary Photo)

Mr Stride was first elected MP of Central Devon in 2010 and has been part of Rishi Sunak’s government since October 2022. 

He has won over 50 per cent of the vote in every general election in the seat so far and will defend a majority of 17,721 at the forthcoming election on Thursday, July 4. 

If Labour does win Central Devon as several pollsters predict, the area’s new MP will be Ollie Pearson, a former Exeter city councillor. 

The Labour Party came second in the seat in the 2019 and 2017 elections – although far behind the Conservatives – and third in 2015 and 2010. 

A victory for Labour in 2024 would be a huge swing away from the Conservatives, who have consistently held large majorities in Central Devon. 

Perhaps splitting the right-wing vote at the forthcoming election will be Reform UK with dramatic vote percentages forecast. 

The five polling companies mentioned predict the new party, whose leader Nigel Farage is standing in Clacton-on-Sea, will scoop up between 11 and 19 per cent of the vote in Central Devon with candidate Jeffrey Leeks. 

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats’ candidate Mark Wooding is forecast to take home between 11 and 25 per cent. 

The Green Party, whose candidate is Gill Westcott, is expected to have less than 10 per cent of the vote. Independent Arthur Price is predicted a very small vote share. 

MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) projections see many more voters interviewed than traditional polls. 

They take demographic information like age and gender and use census data to estimate how people would vote in a constituency. 

It is the same statistical method that correctly predicted the 2017 and 2019 UK general elections – including Labour’s shock victory in Canterbury in 2017. 

Nationally, the polls are pointing to a Labour landslide and a Conservative wipeout. 

YouGov says the Conservative Party is in course to win just 108 seats, the lowest in its near 200-year history of contesting British elections, while the Labour Party would win 425 seats. 

Survation predicts the Conservatives will win even fewer – just 72 seats – and Labour 456. Ipsos forecasts 115 Tory seats and 453 for Labour, Savanta a paltry 53 Tory seats and 516 for Labour, and More in Common 406 for Labour and 155 for the Conservatives.